Issue 012 — SBA-range SMB Market, Week of June 29

Preheader: Forty-three listings reviewed in this week's sample, seventeen in the valid new SBA-range count after eighteen prior-issue duplicates, three within-batch duplicates, one Canadian listing, and four borderline listings above SBA-range ceilings. New sample median 4.50x, range 2.90x to 9.74x. The 12-week rolling mean stands at 4.24x. The publication is one week from the 13-week threshold at which the rolling figure formally extends to 90-day rolling median, the commitment from Issue 003. Wholesale & Distribution emerges as the fourth weekly category sample to reach the n≥3 threshold. A New York Cash Discount App at 9.74x SDE on 73% margin extends the buyer pool signal framework into the Technology category. Six listings from the Tampa/Florida metro area suggest broker geographic concentration patterns the publication will continue to track.

Forty-three listings were reviewed in this week's sample for the week of June 23-29, 2026. The 27-category classification framework operational from Issue 010 forward continues its third week of weekly application.

The filters this week:

The 12-week rolling mean of weekly medians now stands at 4.24x. The rolling figure has held within a 0.20x band (4.04x to 4.50x) for twelve consecutive observations. The publication is one week from the 13-week threshold at which the rolling figure formally extends to 90-day rolling median, the commitment from Issue 003. The 90-day rolling median will become the operational rolling indicator at Issue 013 (publishing Tuesday, July 7).

Three findings warrant attention.

First, Wholesale & Distribution emerges as the fourth weekly category sample to reach the n≥3 threshold for category-level median calculation. The category had not previously produced a single-week sample of analyzable size. This week's n=3 includes a Hardwood Flooring Distributor in Ohio at 5.29x SDE, an Industrial Distribution operation in Tampa FL at 5.03x SDE, and a 54-year-old Manufacturers Representative firm in Tulsa OK at 3.58x SDE. The category median this week is 5.03x. The 3.58x outlier reflects the Manufacturers Rep firm operating model (low margin, high revenue commission-based sales) rather than the inventory-and-distribution capital structure typical of the other two listings.

Second, a New York Cash Discount App at 9.74x SDE extends the Deal Diligence #009 and Deal Diligence #010 buyer pool signal framework into the Technology category. The listing parameters ($10.2M asking on $1.05M SDE, $1.43M revenue, 73% SDE margin, established 2023) reflect software-economics rather than service-business economics. The high multiple combined with the high margin signals positioning for strategic acquirers in payment processing or fintech consolidation rather than SBA-range individual operator-acquirers. The framework continues to apply across categories with sufficient strategic and PE buyer pools.

Third, six listings in this week's sample originated in the Tampa or broader Florida metro area (Jacksonville commercial painting, Tampa industrial distribution, Tampa digital marketing, Tampa eLearning, Tampa custom art DTC, Miami plumbing prior dup). The geographic concentration suggests a single broker or broker network with strong Tampa/Florida representation. The publication will continue to track whether the concentration reflects sustained broker activity in the geography or single-week sampling noise.

The Building & Construction Service, Business Service, and Manufacturing categories that produced n≥3 samples in Issues 010 and 011 each appear at n=2 in this week's new sample (excluding prior duplicates). The week's distribution does not produce category-level medians for these categories.

The remaining valid new sample listings distribute across Health & Medical (n=2: Salt Lake County UT behavioral health clinic, Houston TX assisted living), Technology (n=2: Plano TX off-shore IT services, NYC Cash Discount App), Transportation (n=1: Gulf Coast vessel operations), Auto & Automotive (n=1: Bronx NY tow business), Entertainment & Leisure (n=1: Dallas TX audio/video/lighting production), Educational (n=1: Tampa FL eLearning), Business Service (n=2: MA niche home services franchisor, Tampa FL digital marketing agency), and Building & Construction Service (n=2: Davis County UT general contractor, NY site work and paving).

The category samples at n<3 this week contribute to cumulative observations for category-level inference in coming issues.

The Wholesale & Distribution category at n=3 produces the publication's first single-week category-level median for Wholesale & Distribution at 5.03x with a range of 3.58x to 5.29x. The within-category distribution:

The within-category range (3.58x to 5.29x) is narrower than the Business Service category at n=6 in Issue 011 (2.84x to 9.92x) but still wide enough to warrant sub-segmentation tracking as cumulative observations accumulate. The Manufacturers Rep firm at 3.58x represents a structurally distinct operating model from the inventory-distribution operations at 5.03x and 5.29x. Future Wholesale & Distribution category observations will indicate whether sub-segmentation between "inventory distribution" and "agency/representative distribution" is required for analytical clarity.

The cumulative Wholesale & Distribution dataset, combined with the Queens NY building materials supply business analyzed as the buyer pool signal case in Issue 011 (recategorized at the publication's analytical level from Building & Construction Service to Wholesale & Distribution based on operating model), now provides four cumulative observations for the category. The publication will track cumulative observations toward formal sub-segmentation framework introduction.

The Deal Diligence #009 buyer pool signal framework (introduced in the Minnesota machine manufacturer deep dive on June 21) and the Deal Diligence #010 detailed practice (Texas environmental services deep dive on June 28) established that asking multiples materially above sub-segment medians function as seller-side filters on intended buyer pools rather than as pricing inefficiencies relative to general SBA-range benchmarks.

Issue 012 contains a Technology-category listing that fits the pattern with operating characteristics distinct from the Manufacturing and Business Service cases analyzed in DD #009 and DD #010.

3+ Y/O Profitable Cash Discount App (New York NY) at $10.2M asking against $1.05M SDE on $1.43M revenue. 9.74x SDE, 73% SDE margin. Established 2023 (approximately 3 years of operating history). The listing parameters reflect software-economics characteristic of fintech payment processing rather than service-business economics.

The 73% SDE margin on $1.43M revenue is consistent with software-as-a-service or fintech-platform economics where customer acquisition costs and direct service delivery costs are minimal relative to revenue. A 3-year-old fintech application at this margin profile and growth-stage maturity sits in the band that strategic payment processing acquirers (FIS, Fiserv, Global Payments, smaller specialty payment platforms) and fintech-focused private equity sponsors actively engage.

The 9.74x SDE multiple substantially exceeds any reasonable SBA-range underwriting capacity for individual operator-acquirers. The asking price ($10.2M) exceeds standard SBA 7(a) financing capacity by 104%. The combination signals positioning for strategic acquirer or specialty PE buyer engagement, not SBA-range individual buyer pool engagement.

The framework operating across Manufacturing (DD #009), Business Service environmental (DD #010), Building & Construction-adjacent (the Queens NY building materials supply case in Issue 011), and now Technology fintech (the NY Cash Discount App in Issue 012) demonstrates the pattern's category-independence. Where sufficient differentiated buyer pools exist (strategic acquirers, PE platforms, specialty sector investors) to absorb asking multiples materially above generalist SBA-range benchmarks, those multiples function as buyer pool signals.

The reader-relevant implication: a buyer's first analytical step when encountering an asking multiple materially above the relevant sub-segment median is to identify the implied buyer pool the multiple targets. The asking price level communicates which buyer category the seller is engaging, and the negotiation framework appropriate to that buyer category differs structurally from the framework appropriate to individual operator-acquirer engagements.

Ranked by asking multiple, ascending. New sample median 4.50x (valid new SBA-range, n=17).

Kentucky Pool Company (Mount Vernon, KY) at $2.9M asking against $1.0M reported SDE on $1.1M revenue. 2.90x SDE, 91% reported SDE margin. The lowest multiple in this week's valid new sample. The 91% SDE margin on $1.1M revenue is implausibly high for any operating business under any standard income statement framing and warrants the diligence questions about whether the listing includes real estate or other non-operating asset value that the headline cash flow figure does not separate from operating earnings.

Hot Listing 30 Bed Assisted Living Facility (Houston TX) at $4.95M asking against $1.62M reported SDE, revenue not disclosed. 3.06x SDE. Assisted living operations carry specific regulatory frameworks (Texas Department of Health and Human Services licensing, ongoing inspection compliance, payer mix concerns with Medicaid versus private-pay versus Medicare-Advantage Special Needs Plans, occupancy rate sensitivity to local demographic shifts). The 3.06x multiple is at the lower end of assisted living category transaction norms and suggests either operational challenges that the multiple discounts or seller motivation to clear at a price point that engages broader buyer pool.

54-Year Manufacturers Rep Firm (Tulsa OK) at 3.58x SDE. Analyzed in the Wholesale & Distribution category section above.

3+ Y/O Profitable Cash Discount App (NYC) at 9.74x SDE. Analyzed in the buyer pool signal section above.

Established Behavioral Health Clinic Positioned for Growth (Salt Lake County UT) at $9.0M / $1.3M EBITDA / $4.0M revenue. 6.92x EBITDA, 32% margin. Established 2011. The Behavioral Health category extends the publication's tracking of the behavioral health sub-cluster that emerged in Issue 010 (three behavioral health/pediatric listings at 3.33x to 5.88x). The Salt Lake County listing at 6.92x EBITDA sits above the prior sub-cluster range and may indicate either operating characteristics distinct from the prior listings (multi-state operations, specialty service lines, or contract structure differences) or a positioning intent toward strategic Healthcare buyers underwriting growth-stage behavioral health platforms.

Audio, Video & Lighting Production Company (Dallas TX) at $7.99M / $1.22M SDE / $4.11M revenue. 6.56x SDE, 30% margin. Established 1990. The Entertainment & Leisure category placement reflects production services for events, corporate functions, and entertainment venues. The 35-year operating history combined with the 6.56x multiple suggests either specialty positioning in higher-margin event categories or buyer pool signal positioning for strategic acquirers in the AV-production consolidation space.

Scalable Partner to Leading Fulfillment Brand (Polk County FL) at $25.5M asking against $4.95M SDE on $16.06M revenue. 5.16x SDE, 31% margin. The asking materially exceeds the $15M ceiling, and the cash flow at $4.95M sits well above the $2.5M soft ceiling. The 5.16x multiple is consistent with logistics and fulfillment category transaction norms in the lower-middle-market environment.

Established Commercial Painting Contractor (Jacksonville FL) at $16.0M asking against $3.85M SDE on $16.38M revenue. 4.16x SDE, 24% margin. Established 1992. The asking sits just above the $15M ceiling and the cash flow exceeds the $2.5M soft ceiling. The 4.16x multiple is consistent with mature specialty contractor operations.

High-Volume Independent Pharmacy & Boutique Brand Portfolio (Los Angeles CA) at $4.0M asking against $2.95M SDE on $18.45M revenue. 1.36x SDE, 16% margin. The cash flow at $2.95M sits above the $2.5M soft ceiling. The 1.36x multiple is at the lower end of independent pharmacy category transaction norms and reflects the specific reimbursement and consolidation pressure dynamics affecting independent pharmacy operations.

Custom Handmade Art Business / DTC eCommerce (Tampa FL) at $12.7M asking against $2.82M SDE on $14.70M revenue. 4.50x SDE, 19% margin. Established 2020. The cash flow at $2.82M sits above the $2.5M soft ceiling. The Personal Product & Service category placement with DTC eCommerce operating model reflects the specific customer acquisition and brand-dependence economics of direct-to-consumer custom goods operations.

The 13-week rolling threshold reached. Issue 013 (Tuesday, July 7) will introduce the 90-day rolling median as the operational rolling indicator, completing the commitment from Issue 003. The current 12-week rolling at 4.24x provides the baseline against which the 90-day window will be measured.

The Wholesale & Distribution category reached n≥3 in a single weekly sample for the first time. Cumulative observations across Issues 013-015 will indicate whether the within-category range narrows once sub-segmentation between inventory distribution operations and manufacturers representative operations becomes structurally distinguishable.

The Deal Diligence #009 buyer pool signal framework continues to apply across categories. Issue 012's NY Cash Discount App at 9.74x SDE extends the pattern into Technology with software-economics distinct from prior cases. The publication will continue tracking cumulative observations meeting the pattern as part of the framework dataset.

The Tampa/Florida geographic concentration in this week's sample (six listings) will be tracked across coming weeks to determine whether the concentration reflects sustained broker activity in the geography or single-week sampling variation.

The weekly sample reviewed in each issue is a representative selection of new and reappearing listings from broker monitoring, not a complete enumeration of all market activity.

SDE refers to Seller's Discretionary Earnings. EBITDA is substituted where the broker discloses EBITDA but not SDE, with multiple basis labeled accordingly. Multiples are computed against broker-disclosed cash flow figures at listing time, presumed but not independently verified.

The 27-category classification framework introduced in Special Edition #001 is operational from Issue 010 forward. Categories operate as a re-classification layer on top of broker-supplied categorization. Cross-category duplicates and within-category misclassifications are identified and reconciled at the publication's analytical level.

Sample median is computed from US listings with disclosed financials in the $1.0M-$2.5M cash flow band and disclosed asking price at or below $15M. Listings appearing in prior weekly samples are excluded from the median and tracked in the listing-endurance tracker. Listings with internally contradictory financials are excluded as data-integrity exclusions.

Healthcare sub-segmentation distinguishes practitioner-dependent clinical practices from systematized operations, with the behavioral health and pediatric sub-segment also tracked. Construction sub-segmentation operates as the working framework introduced in Special Edition #001. Manufacturing sub-segmentation (pure specialty 6-10x, contract 4-7x, distribution-adjacent 3-5x) introduced in Deal Diligence #009 is operational. The buyer pool signal framework introduced in Deal Diligence #009 and developed in Deal Diligence #010 operates as the analytical tool for listings where asking multiples sit materially above relevant sub-segment medians.

Published Tuesdays. Deal Diligence published Sundays. Special Editions publish approximately monthly.