Issue 011 — SBA-range SMB Market, Week of June 22

Preheader: Thirty-nine listings reviewed in this week's sample, twenty-six in the valid SBA-range count after three within-batch duplicates, two prior-issue duplicates, one non-US listing, two data-integrity exclusions, and four borderline listings above the SBA-range ceilings. Median 4.43x, range 1.12x to 9.92x. The 11-week rolling mean stands at 4.22x. The Brooklyn medical practice has now appeared at the $3.0M asking for the fifth consecutive issue across six weeks of tracking. Business Service emerges as the third weekly category sample meeting the n≥3 threshold for category-level inference. Two listings above 9.0x provide immediate validation for Deal Diligence #009's buyer pool signal framework.

Thirty-nine listings were reviewed in this week's sample for the week of June 16-22, 2026. The 27-category classification framework introduced in Special Edition #001 and operational from Issue 010 forward continues its second week of weekly application.

The filters this week:

The 11-week rolling mean of weekly medians stands at 4.22x and has held within a 0.15x band (4.15x to 4.30x) for eight consecutive observations. The rolling figure continues to suggest the SBA-range market is operating in a structurally stable pricing band.

Three findings warrant attention.

First, the Brooklyn medical practice has now appeared at the $3.0M reduced asking price for the fifth consecutive issue. The six-week observation arc (Issue 006 first observed at $3.2M, Issue 007 reduction to $3.0M, Issue 008 absent, Issues 009-010-011 returning at $3.0M) represents the publication's most fully documented endurance case with completed price discovery. Deal Diligence #008 analyzed the structural framework explaining why the 3.00x SDE multiple is approximately fair value rather than the discount it appears to be.

Second, Business Service emerges as the third weekly category sample to reach n≥3 for category-level median calculation. The category was introduced as part of the 27-category framework but had not previously produced a single-week sample large enough for inference. This week's n=6 includes a digital marketing agency, a government contracting firm, an oilfield infrastructure operator, an engineering firm, an environmental services company, and a telecom engineering safety operation. The category median this week is 5.07x with a range of 2.84x to 9.92x. The wide within-category range is the diagnostic, not the median itself.

Third, two listings above 9.0x SDE appeared in the same weekly sample. A Texas environmental services company at 9.92x EBITDA and a Queens County NY building materials supply company at 9.06x SDE. Both listings sit above the relevant sub-segment ranges identified in Special Edition #001 and Deal Diligence #009. Both meet the buyer pool signal pattern that Deal Diligence #009 formalized last Sunday: an asking multiple materially above the sub-segment median is the seller's filter on the intended buyer pool, not a pricing inefficiency.

Four categories appear with n=1 to n=2 (Food & Beverage, Home & Garden, Retail Stores, Personal Product & Service). Category-level medians are not computed at this sample size; the observations contribute to cumulative samples for future analysis.

The Building & Construction Service category at n=10 produces a median of 3.83x, holding within 0.03x of the Issue 010 figure (3.80x). The framework continues to demonstrate stability at weekly cadence. The within-category range (1.12x to 9.06x) is the widest this week, reflecting the sub-segment heterogeneity identified in Special Edition #001 (specialty contractors, general construction, specialty manufacturing-adjacent).

The Business Service category at n=6 produces the publication's first category-level median for this category at 5.07x. The category includes engineering services, marketing services, government contracting, environmental services, and oilfield infrastructure operations. The within-category range (2.84x to 9.92x) is significantly wider than the Construction or Manufacturing categories produced this week, suggesting that Business Service may operate without the natural sub-segment cohesion that Construction (specialty/general/manufacturing-adjacent) and Manufacturing (pure specialty/contract/distribution-adjacent) appear to provide. The publication will track Business Service for cumulative observations and assess whether sub-segmentation is required for analytical clarity.

The Manufacturing category at n=4 produces a median of 4.62x, sitting 1.25x above the Issue 010 figure of 3.37x (which was based on only 3 listings). The category continues to operate at sample sizes that require multiple weekly observations before a stable cross-category benchmark emerges. Deal Diligence #009 (published this Sunday) introduced the pure specialty manufacturing sub-segment range at 6-10x SDE for growth-stage operations. This week's Manufacturing sample (3.52x to 5.31x) sits below that range, consistent with operations without disclosed growth differentiators or specialty positioning.

Six valid sample listings within the Business Service category produce the publication's first weekly category-level median for this category at 5.07x with a range of 2.84x to 9.92x. The within-category distribution this week:

The within-category range (2.84x to 9.92x) is significantly wider than other categories' weekly samples have produced. Two structural drivers may account for this width.

First, the category encompasses meaningfully different operating models. A digital marketing agency operates on consultative service revenue with relatively low capital intensity and high founder dependency. An oilfield infrastructure operator carries equipment capital, specialized labor requirements, and project-based revenue. A government contracting firm with security clearances has barriers to entry that the marketing agency does not. An environmental services company in Texas operates within state-specific regulatory frameworks with implications for both buyer pool and revenue durability.

Second, the buyer pool signal pattern formalized in Deal Diligence #009 operates within this category. The Texas environmental services company at 9.92x EBITDA sits materially above any reasonable single-buyer SBA underwriting capacity. The asking multiple combined with the asking price ($11.9M) signals strategic or PE buyer engagement rather than individual operator-acquirer engagement. The same listing at a 4-5x EBITDA SBA-range multiple would price at approximately $4.8M-$6.0M, a substantially different transaction.

The publication's analytical position on Business Service category development: sub-segmentation may be required for clarity. Cumulative observations across coming weeks will indicate whether the within-category multiple range narrows once sub-segments (capital-light vs capital-heavy services, government-cleared vs commercial, regulated vs unregulated) are identified.

Deal Diligence #009 (published Sunday June 21) formalized the framework that an asking multiple materially above the relevant sub-segment median is the seller's filter on the intended buyer pool. The Minnesota specialty machine manufacturer at 7.97x SDE was the deep dive subject; the broader framework was articulated as applicable to any listing where the asking multiple sits structurally above what SBA-range individual buyers can underwrite.

Issue 011 contains two listings that fit the pattern within the same weekly sample.

Premier Texas Environmental Services Company at 9.92x EBITDA on $1.20M trailing EBITDA produces an $11.9M asking price. The asking exceeds standard SBA 7(a) financing capacity ($5.0M) by approximately 138%. The 9.92x EBITDA multiple sits above any reasonable Business Service category range identified in this week's sample (other Business Service listings cluster at 2.84x to 5.38x). The combination signals that the seller is engaging strategic or PE buyers underwriting environmental services platform consolidation in Texas, not individual operator-acquirers underwriting trailing earnings at conservative multiples.

The Texas environmental services market context supports this read. PE platforms in environmental services have been active across the southwestern United States since 2023, with consolidation themes around water treatment, hazardous materials handling, industrial site remediation, and regulatory compliance services. A 14-year-old established Texas environmental services company at $8.5M revenue and $1.2M EBITDA is positioned within the add-on target band that platforms in the category are actively engaging.

Building Materials Supply Company $14M Revenue (Queens County NY) at 9.06x SDE on $1.6M trailing SDE produces a $14.5M asking price. The asking sits just below the SBA-range $15M ceiling but at a multiple that exceeds any Construction sub-segment range identified in Special Edition #001 (specialty contractors 3.20-4.50x, general construction 2.00-3.20x, specialty manufacturing-adjacent 4.00-7.00x). The listing operates as a building materials distribution and supply business rather than as installation services, which places it operationally adjacent to Wholesale & Distribution rather than within standard Construction sub-segments.

The asking multiple combined with the asking price signals positioning for strategic acquirers in the building materials distribution channel (national building products platforms, regional distribution consolidators, or PE platforms in the building products supply chain category). The 11% SDE margin on $14M revenue is consistent with distribution-business economics where inventory turnover and supplier relationship efficiency drive returns rather than service margin. The buyer pool implied is platform-stage acquirers underwriting consolidation synergies rather than individual operator-acquirers underwriting standalone earnings.

The Deal Diligence #009 framework operating across two distinct categories (Business Service environmental and Building & Construction materials supply) in the same weekly sample validates the framework's applicability beyond the Manufacturing case the deep dive analyzed. Asking multiples materially above sub-segment medians appear to function consistently as buyer pool signals across categories with sufficient differentiated buyer pools (strategic acquirers, PE platforms, family office operators) to absorb the price level.

The Building & Construction Service category at n=10 produces multiples spanning 1.12x to 9.06x. Removing the buyer pool signal outlier at 9.06x (Building Materials Supply Queens NY), the remaining 9 listings distribute across the three sub-segments identified in Special Edition #001.

Specialty contractors (3.20x to 4.50x): Insulation Contractor MA at 3.30x, Window Covering NM at 3.74x, Plumbing Miami FL at 4.17x, Full-Service Construction CA at 4.16x. Four listings clustered within the band.

General construction and remodeling (2.00x to 3.20x): Luxury Home Builder Collin TX at 3.17x, Servpro Restoration Franchise Portland OR at 1.12x (sub-band, likely reflecting franchise dynamics rather than independent construction), High-End Residential Builder Norfolk MA at 3.45x (at the boundary). Three listings within or near the band.

Specialty manufacturing-adjacent (4.00x to 7.00x): Bay Area Exterior Home Service at 5.47x, 110+ Yr Commercial HVAC & Roofing Contractor at 3.91x (at the boundary). Two listings within the band.

The Special Edition #001 sub-segmentation framework continues to describe the Construction category distribution accurately across two consecutive weekly issues (Issue 010 n=8, Issue 011 n=10). The cumulative Construction category dataset across the publication's history is now sufficient for formal sub-segmentation tracking with structural reliability.

Ranked by asking multiple, ascending. Sample median 4.43x (valid SBA-range, n=26).

Servpro Franchise for Sale in Portland OR at $2.5M asking against $2.24M reported SDE. 1.12x SDE. The lowest multiple in this week's valid sample. Franchise restoration operations carry specific economics that differentiate them from independent construction service businesses: brand-driven customer acquisition through Servpro's national marketing, royalty obligations to the franchisor, territory restrictions, and franchise renewal contingencies. The 1.12x multiple reflects either substantial founder labor flowing to SDE in a small franchise operation (typical Servpro franchises operate with the franchisee personally directing field operations) or the absence of disclosed revenue (which prevents margin analysis and may flag a different reporting structure). A buyer's first diligence priority is the franchise agreement transferability and renewal terms, the territory definition and any competitive Servpro franchises in adjacent territories, and the founder labor component of the reported SDE.

Confidential Legacy Restaurant For Sale (Wilmington NC) at $2.5M asking against $2.14M reported SDE on $2.35M revenue. 1.17x SDE, 91% reported SDE margin. The 91% margin is implausible for a restaurant operation under any standard income statement framing. The listing description discloses inclusion of real estate (a freestanding ±4,000 SF property) and $130,400 in FF&E included in the asking price. The asking price likely reflects the combined enterprise value (operating business plus real estate) while the reported cash flow may capture only the operating component, producing the apparent 91% margin as a calculation artifact rather than a true operating margin. The 1.17x multiple is the lowest valid multiple in the sample for a restaurant operation and is meaningful only after the real estate component is separated from the operating business in the diligence work.

Smoke Shop for Sale in East Baton Rouge County LA at $2.0M asking against $1.20M reported SDE on $3.39M revenue. 1.67x SDE, 35% margin. The Retail Stores category placement reflects standard retail merchandising operations. Smoke shop operations in Louisiana carry specific regulatory framework (state-level tobacco licensing, federal age verification requirements, evolving state-level CBD and alternative product regulations) that affects both buyer pool and operational continuity. The 1.67x multiple is at the lower end of Retail Stores category norms.

Premier Texas Environmental Services Company at 9.92x EBITDA. Analyzed in the Deal Diligence #009 buyer pool signal section above.

Building Materials Supply Company Queens NY at 9.06x SDE. Analyzed in the Deal Diligence #009 buyer pool signal section above.

Cleared Government Contracting Firm Arlington VA at 5.38x EBITDA. Established 2005, $7.0M asking on $1.30M EBITDA, $6.0M revenue, 22% margin. Security clearances at the operating level (Top Secret, SCI, or similar) create barriers to entry that justify multiple premiums relative to baseline Business Service operations. The 5.38x multiple is at the upper end of standard Business Service category norms but defensible given the cleared-personnel asset that does not transfer through standard business acquisitions without specific contracting structures. A buyer's diligence priorities include the proportion of revenue tied to cleared contract vehicles, the clearance status of key personnel and their post-acquisition retention commitments, and any GovCon-specific contract transferability issues.

Machine Shop for Sale 50%+ Profit Margin (Cook County IL) at 3.52x SDE on $1.41M SDE, $2.40M revenue, 59% margin. The 59% margin warrants the diligence questions about founder labor capture in SDE versus expense. Machine shops at $2.4M revenue typically operate with the founder personally directing operations and the founder compensation flowing to SDE rather than to wage expense. A normalized analysis treating founder labor at $150,000-$200,000 fair-market replacement would move the multiple from 3.52x to approximately 4.0x-4.3x against normalized SDE.

California-Based Wholesale Distribution Company at $20.0M asking against $4.05M reported SDE. The asking exceeds the SBA-range $15M ceiling, and the cash flow at $4.05M sits well above the $2.5M soft ceiling. Established 1990, 35+ years of operating history. The 4.94x SDE multiple is consistent with mature wholesale distribution operations but the buyer pool is structurally PE platform or strategic acquirer rather than SBA-range individual.

NYC Public Works Contractor with Huge Backlog at $10.0M asking against $3.0M reported SDE on $22.0M revenue. 3.33x SDE, 14% margin. The cash flow at $3.0M sits above the $2.5M soft ceiling. Public works contracting operations carry specific working capital characteristics (bonded project performance requirements, project-based receivable cycles, payment timing tied to government billing schedules) that affect the cash flow conversion from SDE.

Market-Leading Commercial Architectural Firm (Florida) at $9.73M asking against $6.69M reported SDE. The cash flow at $6.69M sits substantially above the $2.5M soft ceiling. The 1.45x SDE multiple is anomalously low for an architectural firm and warrants closer inspection: either the reported SDE reflects an unusual reporting period that may not be sustainable, or the asking is positioned for fast clearing at a meaningful discount to typical category multiples.

National Supplement Retail Chain at $17.80M asking against $4.60M reported SDE on $29.30M revenue. 3.87x SDE, 16% margin. The asking exceeds the $15M ceiling, the cash flow exceeds the $2.5M soft ceiling. The multiple is consistent with multi-unit retail operations.

Toxicology Lab Miami FL at $7.9M asking against $990K reported SDE and $1.0M reported EBITDA, $2.1M revenue, 47% margin. The SDE of $990K sits just below the $1.0M floor used for the publication's valid sample; the EBITDA at $1.0M sits at the floor. The 7.94x SDE multiple is high. Toxicology lab operations carry specific regulatory and reimbursement characteristics (CLIA certification requirements, payer mix concentration concerns, regulatory enforcement exposure under federal anti-kickback statutes for laboratory referral arrangements) that warrant deep diligence work before any multiple comparison becomes meaningful.

Orlando AIRPORT CAR RENTAL FRANCHISE OPPORTUNITY at $250,000 asking against $1.36M reported cash flow. Asking price below cash flow by approximately 5x. The relationship is impossible under any standard SBA-range business sale framing. The listing is excluded from sample analysis.

Home Remodeling & Construction Company in Salt Lake at $500,000 asking against $1.4M cash flow and $1.2M revenue. Cash flow exceeding revenue (117% margin) is mathematically impossible. The listing is excluded.

The Brooklyn medical practice analyzed in Deal Diligence #008 appeared in this week's intake under both Health Care & Fitness (#33) and Manufacturing (#35) categories with identical financial parameters. The Manufacturing categorization is a clear broker error; a multi-disciplinary medical practice in Brooklyn at $8.3M revenue is operationally Healthcare under any reasonable categorization framework. The cross-listing is treated as a single instance for sample analysis purposes and demonstrates the rationale for the publication's 27-category framework operating as a re-classification layer rather than as passive acceptance of broker-supplied categorization.

The Brooklyn medical practice continues to provide the publication's longest endurance arc. The five-consecutive-issue persistence at $3.0M asking is now the publication's definitive case study of seller commitment to a reduced clearing level. Whether the listing transacts at this level, sees a second reduction, or continues to persist through Issue 012 will be tracked.

The Business Service category reached the n≥3 threshold for the first time this week. The within-category multiple range (2.84x to 9.92x) is significantly wider than other categories at comparable sample sizes. Sub-segmentation may be required for analytical clarity. Cumulative observations across Issues 012-014 will indicate whether the within-category range narrows.

The Deal Diligence #009 buyer pool signal framework, published Sunday, finds two immediate validation cases in Issue 011 (Texas environmental services at 9.92x EBITDA, Queens NY building materials supply at 9.06x SDE). The pattern of asking multiples materially above sub-segment medians functioning as seller-side buyer pool filters appears applicable across multiple categories. The publication will track future observations meeting the pattern as part of the cumulative framework dataset.

The 11-week rolling mean at 4.22x continues to hold within an extremely tight band (4.15x to 4.30x) for eight consecutive observations. The publication is approaching the 13-week threshold at which the rolling figure formally extends to 90-day rolling median, the commitment from Issue 003 targeted for Issue 013.

The weekly sample reviewed in each issue is a representative selection of new and reappearing listings from broker monitoring, not a complete enumeration of all market activity.

SDE refers to Seller's Discretionary Earnings. EBITDA is substituted where the broker discloses EBITDA but not SDE, with multiple basis labeled accordingly. Multiples are computed against broker-disclosed cash flow figures at listing time, presumed but not independently verified.

The 27-category classification framework introduced in Special Edition #001 is operational from Issue 010 forward. Categories operate as a re-classification layer on top of broker-supplied categorization rather than as passive acceptance. Cross-category duplicates and within-category misclassifications are identified and reconciled at the publication's analytical level.

Sample median is computed from US listings with disclosed financials in the $1.0M-$2.5M cash flow band and disclosed asking price at or below $15M. Listings appearing in prior weekly samples are excluded from the median and tracked in the listing-endurance tracker. Listings with internally contradictory financials are excluded as data-integrity exclusions.

Healthcare sub-segmentation distinguishes practitioner-dependent clinical practices from systematized operations, with the behavioral health and pediatric sub-segment now also tracked. Construction sub-segmentation operates as the working framework introduced in Special Edition #001. Manufacturing sub-segmentation (pure specialty manufacturing 6-10x SDE, contract manufacturing 4-7x, distribution-adjacent 3-5x) introduced in Deal Diligence #009 is now operational.

Published Tuesdays. Deal Diligence published Sundays. Special Editions publish approximately monthly.