Issue 006 — SBA-range SMB Market, Week of May 18

Preheader: Nineteen unique listings reviewed, fourteen in the valid US sample after excluding two prior-issue duplicates and three data-integrity exclusions. Median 4.07x. The listing-endurance tracker launches formally this week as promised in Issue 005.

Nineteen unique listings in the $1M–$5M cash flow range were reviewed for the week of May 12–18, 2026, after removing in-batch duplicate entries. Two listings appeared in prior weekly samples and are tracked separately. Three listings were excluded for data-integrity reasons described below. The remaining 14 US listings produced a sample median of 4.07x, with a range from 1.62x to 6.40x.

The week-over-week directional move was downward, with the median compressing from Issue 005's 4.50x to 4.07x. As stated in every prior issue, single-week movements at this sample size reflect composition rather than market direction. The six-week rolling figure across Issues 001-006 is 4.20x, which remains the most reliable indicator of where the SBA-range market is currently transacting. The rolling figure has now held within a narrow 4.20x–4.23x band for three consecutive weeks, the first sign of stabilization in the rolling metric.

Three findings warrant attention this week. First, the listing-endurance tracker launches formally this week as promised in Issue 005. Two listings (Specialized Legal Practice, Linn County IA, and Southeast Marketing Consultancy, Seminole County FL) have now appeared in three consecutive issues (004, 005, 006) at unchanged asking prices. They are this week's leading endurance observations and the first entries in the formal tracker.

Second, three listings were excluded for data-integrity reasons rather than the usual duplicate or out-of-scope filters. One reported cash flow substantially above its stated revenue, a mathematical impossibility that indicates broker data error. One was a land-investment vehicle rather than an operating business. One carried an asking price of $28.5M, far above the SBA-range financing band, and is discussed separately because the underlying business sits in a category worth examining.

Third, no single category dominated the sample this week. The most populous categories (B2B Services, Retail/Hospitality) held only three listings each. After Issue 004's Construction concentration (54%) and Issue 005's near-absence of Construction, this week's flat distribution is a reminder that category concentration is a function of weekly broker listing behavior, not market structure.

The asking-price disclosure rate remained at 100%. The category-withholding pattern flagged in Issue 005 did not recur this week; no listing withheld its business category.

No category exceeded three listings this week, the flattest distribution in six issues. The category medians should be read with that constraint: a three-listing median is directional, not definitive.

B2B Services produced the tightest three-listing cluster (3.33x to 4.63x), consistent with the category consistency observed in prior issues once outliers are removed. The three listings (port drayage, event production, FedEx line-haul) are operationally diverse but priced within a narrow band.

Healthcare produced the widest internal range (Physician Practice at 3.20x, Medical Laboratory at 6.40x). The dispersion is structural: a physician practice is a personal-services business with founder-dependency risk, while an absentee-run medical laboratory is a systematized operation with transferable infrastructure. The cumulative Healthcare sample across Issues 004-006 now stands at n=5 (Implant Dental, Med Spa, Primary Care from prior issues, plus Physician Practice and Medical Laboratory this week), reaching the threshold for sub-segmentation analysis promised in Issue 005. That analysis is introduced below.

SaaS produced the widest absolute range (Online Business at 1.62x, Ed-Tech Platform at 4.59x). The 1.62x listing is discussed in the below-median section.

Issue 005 committed to Healthcare sub-segmentation once the cumulative sample reached n=5. That threshold is now met. The five cumulative Healthcare listings across Issues 004-006:

The cumulative data suggests a preliminary sub-segment distinction. Practitioner-dependent clinical practices (dental, primary care, physician practice) cluster at lower multiples (2.19x, 3.20x, 3.60x) with one outlier (Med Spa at 8.33x, which Deal Diligence #003 analyzed as a premium-pricing anomaly rather than a category-representative figure). Systematized diagnostic operations (the absentee-run laboratory) command higher multiples because the earnings are not tied to a specific practitioner's personal labor and the business is genuinely transferable.

The preliminary conclusion, subject to further sample accumulation: Healthcare is not a single category for valuation purposes. The relevant question for a buyer is not "what does a healthcare business trade at" but "does the earnings base survive the departure of the named practitioner." Practitioner-dependent practices carry a transfer-risk discount that systematized operations do not. The Med Spa outlier (8.33x) reinforces rather than contradicts this: that listing's premium was the seller's construction, not a category norm, and Deal Diligence #003 documented why the normalized multiple was substantially lower.

This sub-segmentation will continue to accumulate observations. The practitioner-dependent versus systematized distinction will be tracked as the framing for all future Healthcare listings.

Issue 005 committed to a formal listing-endurance tracker beginning Issue 006. It launches here. The tracker records each listing's first observed appearance and every subsequent reappearance, accumulating a dataset on listing duration and seller price behavior.

Both leading endurance listings have held asking price unchanged across three consecutive weekly observations. The Legal Practice listing is additionally notable because its 0.88x multiple has been the lowest in the sample across all three appearances (excluding the Issue 005 Omaha anomaly), and the asking price has not moved despite the unusually low multiple. This is informative: either the broker and seller believe the financials justify the price and are willing to wait, or the listing carries undisclosed issues that the market is pricing through inaction rather than through a reduced asking figure.

Two listings tracked in prior issues (Adult Venue Nevada, four-issue endurance through Issue 005; Tire & Auto Westchester NY, three-issue endurance through Issue 005) did not appear in this week's intake. Their absence has two possible explanations: the listings transacted or were withdrawn, or they remain active but were not captured in this week's listing sweep. The tracker cannot distinguish between these without confirmation. Both will be marked as "endurance interrupted, status unconfirmed" and monitored for reappearance. This ambiguity is itself a methodological lesson: a single weekly sweep cannot confirm a listing's removal, only its presence. The tracker measures reappearance reliably but absence only provisionally.

The tracker's value compounds over time. By Issue 015-020, it will produce a defensible dataset on average listing duration, the frequency and magnitude of price reductions over listing life, and the relationship between time-on-market and eventual transaction. None of that is available from a single week. The commitment is to consistent recording so the dataset exists when the sample is large enough to support conclusions.

This week's filters included three exclusions beyond the standard duplicate and out-of-scope rules. Each is documented for transparency.

Vintage Furniture Business, Hudson County NJ. The listing reported $3,571,299 cash flow on $1,434,500 revenue. Cash flow exceeding revenue by a factor of approximately 2.5x is not possible for an operating business under any normal accounting; cash flow is a derivative of revenue, not independent of it. This indicates a broker data-entry error (likely the cash flow and revenue figures transposed, or the cash flow figure entered with an incorrect magnitude). The listing is excluded because no reliable multiple can be calculated from internally contradictory figures. A buyer encountering this listing should treat all stated financials as unverified until source documents reconcile the contradiction.

Remote Land Investment Business, Collin County TX. The listing describes a land-acquisition-and-resale vehicle generating "owner profits" rather than an operating business with transferable operations and staff. Land investment vehicles are asset-allocation activities, not operating businesses, and their "cash flow" is investment return rather than business earnings. Including such a listing in an operating-business multiple sample would distort the median. It is excluded on the same principle that excluded the Issue 005 cannabis-extraction investment offering: the sample measures operating businesses, not investment vehicles.

Infrastructure Tech Stack Provider (Prop-Trading SaaS), Tampa FL. Asking $28.5M on $3.35M SDE, an 8.5x multiple. The asking price is far above the SBA-range financing band this publication tracks; SBA 7(a) loan limits do not support a $28.5M transaction, and the buyer pool for this listing is private equity or strategic acquirers rather than SBA-range operators. It is excluded from the sample median on the same basis as the Issue 005 San Diego gas-station portfolio. The underlying business, however, sits in a category worth examining separately, below.

The excluded prop-trading SaaS listing is reported separately because the category illustrates a pattern relevant to SBA-range buyers even though this specific deal is out of range.

The listing describes a SaaS infrastructure provider serving proprietary trading firms, with 50 enterprise clients, a stated $180K average order value, and a reported user base exceeding one million traders. Reported financials are $6.17M revenue and $3.35M SDE, a 54.3% SDE margin.

The proprietary-trading-firm industry is a specific and currently volatile end market. Industry reporting through 2025 and into 2026 documents that the sector entered a consolidation phase after MetaQuotes withdrew MetaTrader support from prop firms in early 2024, forcing many operators to exit or rebuild their technology stacks. Industry analysis indicates approximately 85% of prop firms run on white-label or SaaS infrastructure rather than custom-built technology, which is the demand base for a business like this one. The same reporting documents that the industry operates in a regulatory grey zone in most jurisdictions, with periodic enforcement and platform-provider actions that can rapidly reshape the operating environment for both prop firms and their infrastructure vendors.

For an SBA-range buyer, the transferable lesson is not this specific deal. It is that a SaaS business whose entire customer base sits in a single regulatory-grey-zone end market carries concentration risk that the headline metrics do not show. A 54.3% SDE margin and 50 enterprise clients look attractive in isolation. The same figures look different when every one of those 50 clients operates in an industry where a single platform-provider decision (as MetaQuotes demonstrated in 2024) can remove a large fraction of the customer base in a single quarter. The diligence priority on any vertical-SaaS acquisition is the regulatory and platform-dependency profile of the vertical, not the SaaS metrics themselves. This pattern recurs across categories and is the same structural issue Deal Diligence #002 (solar, regulatory timing) and Deal Diligence #004 (telecom compliance, regulatory dependency) examined in different industries.

Ranked by asking multiple, ascending. Sample median 4.07x. Top entries discussed.

Asking $2.75M on $1.698M SDE. Implied multiple 1.62x, 60% below the sample median. The lowest multiple in the valid sample.

A 1.62x multiple on a profitable online business with a 46.3% SDE margin is materially below where digital businesses with recurring characteristics transact. The most common explanations for a sub-2x digital business are: revenue concentration in a small number of customers or a single channel, a declining trend the trailing figure does not show, owner-specific revenue relationships that do not transfer, or platform dependency where a single algorithm or policy change threatens the revenue base. The listing's limited operational disclosure makes the diligence priority the revenue durability and channel concentration analysis. A buyer's first request should be the trailing-36-month revenue by channel and by customer, with the trend line that the single-point SDE figure does not reveal. A 1.62x multiple is the market signaling something the cover sheet does not state.

Asking $3.3M on $1.555M SDE. Implied multiple 2.12x, 48% below the sample median. Reported SDE margin: 72.3%.

A 72.3% SDE margin on a general contracting business is implausible. Construction GCs typically operate at 8-20% SDE margins because subcontractor costs, materials, and labor dominate the cost structure. A 72.3% margin indicates either substantial owner labor presented as profit, a business that is effectively a brokerage of subcontracted work rather than a contractor (much higher margin but much higher customer-relationship dependency), or aggressive add-back treatment. The 2.12x multiple may be the market correctly discounting a margin that will not survive lender normalization. The buyer's first request is the subcontractor cost schedule and the add-back detail behind the 72.3% figure.

Asking $2.99995M on $1.0M SDE. Implied multiple 3.00x, 26% below the sample median.

Gas station portfolios transact at structurally low multiples (2-4x SDE) due to fuel-margin volatility, environmental liability exposure (underground storage tanks), and the working-capital intensity of fuel inventory. The 3.00x asking sits in the middle of the category range. Diligence priority: environmental compliance status of the underground storage tanks (a single tank remediation can exceed the entire purchase price), fuel-supply contract terms, and the split between fuel margin and convenience-store margin (the latter is the durable earnings driver; fuel margin is volatile and increasingly compressed).

Asking $3.2M on $1.0M SDE. Implied multiple 3.20x, 21% below the sample median.

A physician practice at 3.20x is consistent with the practitioner-dependent clinical sub-segment identified in the Healthcare sub-segmentation analysis above. The discount to sample median reflects transfer risk: the earnings are tied to a specific physician's patient relationships, referral network, and clinical reputation. The diligence priority is the post-transition retention plan: whether the selling physician remains for a transition period, whether the patient base is contractually portable, and what proportion of revenue depends on the departing physician's specific referral relationships.

Absentee-Run Medical Laboratory, Somerset County NJ. Asking $8.0M on $1.25M SDE. Implied multiple 6.40x, 57% above sample median. The highest multiple in the valid sample.

The "absentee-run" framing is the key disclosure. A medical laboratory generating $12.5M revenue that genuinely operates without owner involvement is the systematized-diagnostic sub-segment identified in the Healthcare analysis, and such businesses do command premium multiples because the earnings are transferable and the operation is not practitioner-dependent. The 6.40x multiple is plausible for a genuinely systematized laboratory. The diligence priority is verifying the "absentee" claim: the same scrutiny Deal Diligence #004 applied to the telecom "10-12 hours a week" claim applies here. A buyer should request the management structure, the key-personnel dependency analysis, and the laboratory's accreditation and payer-contract status (laboratory revenue depends heavily on payer contracts and CLIA/CAP accreditation, both of which carry transfer and renewal risk the headline figures do not show).

Upscale Restaurant & Banquets, Roselle Park NJ. $1.8M SDE on $3.2M revenue produces a 56.2% SDE margin. Full-service restaurants with banquet operations typically run 10-18% SDE margins after food cost, labor, and occupancy. A 56.2% margin is approximately 3-4x category norm. The listing includes real estate ($5.5M stated separately), which may explain part of the structure if the "SDE" figure inappropriately includes property-related items, but it does not explain a margin of this magnitude on the operating business alone. The buyer's first request is the separation of operating earnings from real-estate-related cash flow and the full add-back schedule.

FAA-Certified Aviation Training Academy. $1.0M EBITDA on $1.9M revenue produces a 52.6% EBITDA margin. Aviation training academies carry high fixed costs (aircraft, simulators, instructor labor, insurance, FAA compliance) that typically constrain margins well below this level. The 52.6% figure warrants the same reconciliation: aircraft depreciation treatment, instructor labor classification, and whether FAA compliance costs are fully expensed. The 4.0x EBITDA multiple is reasonable if the margin normalizes; the diligence is whether it does.

The listing-endurance tracker is now live with two three-week entries (Legal Practice IA, Marketing Consultancy FL). Both will be monitored for a fourth consecutive appearance or for transition to pending/closed status. The two prior endurance listings with unconfirmed status (Adult Venue NV, Tire & Auto NY) will be monitored for reappearance.

Healthcare sub-segmentation launched this week at n=5 cumulative, with a preliminary practitioner-dependent versus systematized distinction. This framing will be applied to all future Healthcare listings and refined as the sample grows.

The six-week rolling median (4.20x) has held within a 4.20x–4.23x band for three consecutive weeks, the first stabilization signal in the rolling metric. The 90-day rolling median remains targeted for Issue 010, four issues away.

Three data-integrity exclusions this week (cash-flow-exceeds-revenue error, land investment vehicle, out-of-range asking) are the most in any single issue. Whether broker data-quality issues are a recurring pattern or a one-week cluster will be tracked. If cash-flow-exceeds-revenue or similar internal contradictions recur, a formal data-integrity flag rate will be added to the standard metrics alongside the asking-price disclosure rate.

The prop-trading-SaaS borderline case introduced the vertical-SaaS regulatory-concentration pattern. If similar single-vertical SaaS businesses appear in future samples, the regulatory-dependency-of-the-vertical analysis will be applied consistently.

No category exceeded three listings this week. Category concentration will continue to be reported but, as six issues now demonstrate, single-week category share is composition noise and only cumulative samples support category-level conclusions.

SDE refers to Seller's Discretionary Earnings. Most listings in this cash flow range are priced against SDE. The broker's stated metric is used. Where a broker discloses EBITDA but not SDE (Aviation Training Academy and Siding Installation this week), EBITDA is substituted for the multiple calculation and labeled accordingly.

Sample median is computed from US listings with disclosed financials and disclosed asking price, within the SBA-range cash flow band. Two listings appeared in prior issues (Legal Practice IA, Marketing Consultancy FL) and are excluded from the median to avoid double-counting; they are tracked in the listing-endurance tracker. Three listings were excluded for data-integrity reasons (cash flow exceeding revenue, investment vehicle rather than operating business, asking price far above SBA-range financing capacity), each documented in a dedicated section.

Listing-endurance tracker records each listing's first observed appearance and subsequent reappearances. Absence from a given week's sample is recorded as "status unconfirmed" rather than "removed," because a single weekly sweep confirms presence reliably but absence only provisionally.

Healthcare sub-segmentation distinguishes practitioner-dependent clinical practices from systematized operations, based on whether the earnings base survives the departure of a specific named practitioner. The distinction is preliminary at n=5 cumulative and will be refined as the sample grows.

Margin implausibility refers to reported SDE or EBITDA figures implying margins substantially above category norms. Such listings are retained in the sample for transparency but flagged in diligence commentary.

The EBITDA Report compiles public listing data. Not legal, financial, tax, or investment advice. Independent verification and professional diligence are required before any acquisition decision.

Published Tuesdays. Deal Diligence published Sundays.